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Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change

Moving Forward: Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change, Drought and Water Demand in the Urbanizing Southwestern United States and Northern Mexico

A NOAA-SARP project

Introduction

Climate change and associated variability in water resources pose serious challenges for water managers in the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. Urban areas confront the future challenges of rapid growth and intensified water demand related to socioeconomic changes and climate-related uncertainties, such as droughts, flooding, and the potential of reduced water supply. Rapid growth in these areas has increased the vulnerability of urban water users to climatic changes. Looking toward a 20-year horizon, this project focuses on research to develop adaptive long-term planning for water management in four urban ‘hotspots” in the North American monsoon-affected corridor of Arizona and Sonora: Tucson, Hermosillo, Ambos Nogales (Nogales, Arizona and Nogales, Sonora), and Puerto Peñasco.

This project, supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Sectoral Applications Research Program (NOAA-SARP), focuses on stakeholder-researcher engagement to develop regionalized adaptive water management strategies to reduce urban and rural vulnerabilities and build resilience. Working closely with urban water managers and civil preparedness planners in the Arizona-Sonora region, this project will develop vulnerability assessments and site-specific adaptive management scenarios at the 5-, 10-, and 20-year horizons for the identified urban areas.

Project Goal

institutionalize the use of climate information by decision-makers in southern Arizona and northwest Mexico to foster longer-term adaptive planning and increase resiliency under conditions of uncertainty
address the impacts of climate variability and climate change in vulnerable urban and rural areas
regionalize climate science production and utilization by water managers and other stakeholders through the development and field-testing of a binational, bilingual climate outlook summary

Project Activities

use climate diagnostic information to identify and assess societal vulnerabilities posed
socioeconomic and demographic change, climate variability and change, and emerging water demand uncertainties
assess the institutional and policy implications of identified vulnerabilities
work with stakeholders to develop adaptive management strategies for mid-long term scenarios

Contacts

Lead Agency:
The University of Arizona (USA)

PI: Robert Varady, Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy
rvarady@email.arizona.edu

Deputy PI: Margaret Wilder, Center for Latin American
Studies/Department of Geography and Regional Development
mwilder@email.arizona.edu

Co-PI: Christopher Scott, Udall Center for Studies in Public
Policy/Department of Geography and Regional Development
cascott@email.arizona.edu

Investigators:
Gregg Garfin—Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
Barbara Morehouse—Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
Anne Browning-Aiken—Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy
George Frisvold—Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics

Collaborators:
Nicolás Pineda—El Colegio de Sonora (México)
Martín Montero—Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua (IMTA) (México)
David Gochis—National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) (USA)
Patricia Romero Lankao—National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA)
Andrea Ray—National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (USA)
Chris Watts—Universidad de Sonora (México)

Project Status (October 2009)

> Continued field work visits and interviews in southeastern Arizona (farmers and ranchers); in Puerto Peñasco, Sonora (urban water managers, environmental NGOs, ejidos affected by urban water transfers); and Nogales, Arizona and Nogales, Sonora (urban and state water managers); and Hermosillo, Sonora (urban water managers, ejidos in peri-urban areas, irrigation districts, emergency preparedness planners).

> Summer and fall 2009 preparation of draft case studies and assessment of needs for additional fieldwork.

> Three stakeholder workshops have been held: November 2008 (Hermosillo), July 2009 (Cuernavaca) and October 2009 (Pto Peñasco). A fourth is being planned for early summer 2010. See IAI meeting page for further information.

> See full project timeline (Summer 2008-Fall 2009) here [PDF]

More Project Information

> Project fact sheet [PDF]

> Border Climate Summary / Resumen del Clima de la Frontera [most recent issue]

> Media coverage from Arizona Daily Star [PDF]

> Stakeholder workshop agendas [IAI meeting page]

> List of project-related publications (as of July 2009) [PDF]

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Conducted by

Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM)	El Colegio de Sonora (COLSON)	Climate Assessment for the Southwest


The University of Arizona (UA)	Universidad de Sonora	El Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada

		National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraton (NOAA)
Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua (IMTA)	National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)