The following is the opinion and analysis of the writers:
The lower basin states of Arizona, California and Nevada recently announced a proposal to voluntarily cut some 3 million-acre-feet of water, or almost 14% of their Colorado River allocation. The latest proposal represents a cooperative move between the states where tensions have been running high in recent months. It answers the call from the feds for action from the states to address shortage in the basin. And the plan is tied to some new federal investments in the region. There is a lot to celebrate here, but by no means is the crisis over for Arizona.
This plan just gets us to 2026. It is a band aid, not a long-term solution. It represents just 50% of the minimum cuts that the feds originally wanted — the amount they said is needed to account for the shortage in the basin and keep the reservoirs from running dry over the long term. We got lucky this year with the winter precipitation that is giving our reservoirs much needed water, but climate experts tell us that the longer-term pattern of lower flows and drought will be the new normal. One wet year should not distract us from the real challenges still at hand.
Ultimately, basin-wide, all 7 basin states and Mexico need to come to new terms with a smaller river. The average Colorado River flow for the past 30 years has only been about 60% of the 16.5 million acre-feet that has been allocated. Additionally, tribal water users are an important part of the conversation, and the solution. Tribes in the basin currently have recognized rights to 20% of total allocations, but many are not using all their allocated water, and still others have unsettled water rights claims that impede tribal economic development and basin-wide planning.
In many ways, this current deal is a no-brainer for Arizona. California is willing to take cuts. Federal money will help tribes, cities and farmers better manage the water cuts. But real trade-offs still need to be made that affect the future of agriculture in Arizona and our development patterns and growth.
We likely cannot expect the federal government to provide billions of dollars each year for temporary conservation measures. It is time to end the annual cycle of collective breath-holding about how much water needs to be cut each year and who will receive water. We need a durable plan that provides certainty in terms of minimum water deliveries to all water users under various conditions. We need to negotiate new, permanent agreements that enable access to affordable and reliable water for all in the basin. Let’s celebrate this one but keep working to build a more sustainable, resilient future for all Arizonans.
Andrea K. Gerlak is Director of the Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy and a professor in the School of Geography, Development and Environment at the University of Arizona. She is a Tucson Public Voices fellow with the OpEd Project.
Juliet McKenna is a hydrogeologist and water planning consultant. They are both members of the City of Tucson’s Citizen Water Advisory Committee.